UPDATE MARS 2026
Swiss Banking Outlook
The SBA members’ outlook for the financial markets and banking business
In its Swiss Banking Outlook Update, the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) outlines the expected trends in selected macroeconomic and financial market indicators and discusses topics with relevance for Swiss banking. The consensus forecasts are based on a survey of experienced financial market experts from SBA member institutions.
Cautiously optimistic expectations for Swiss financial centre
The experts surveyed anticipate moderate economic growth this year and next, along with low inflation and a slight rise in unemployment. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy rate is expected to remain at 0.00% throughout 2026. The aggregate net income of the banks in Switzerland will be at the same level as in 2025 or perhaps even higher. The main reasons cited for this are an increase in the result from commission business and services and a steadily rising forecast for mortgage loans and assets under management in Switzerland.
Swiss Banking Outlook Update methodology
Seasoned financial market experts from SBA member institutions responded to the written survey on the short- and medium-term outlook for the banking industry in February 2026, which constitutes Swiss banking’s most broadly based indicator. Participants include chief economists, chief investment officers and leading investment specialists. The Swiss Banking Outlook Update includes a consensus forecast for each of the main macroeconomic and financial market indicators as well as expectations regarding opportunities and risks for the banking business in Switzerland. The experts’ opinions refer in each case to the Swiss banking industry as a whole rather than the performance of their own institution.
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