Swiss Banking Outlook

Upbeat outlook for banks

In its new Swiss Banking Outlook, the SBA outlines the expected trends in selected macroeconomic and financial market indicators and discusses topics with relevance for Swiss banking. The publication is based on the results of a survey of recognised financial market experts from SBA member institutions.

The updated Swiss Banking Outlook shows that banking experts who participated in an SBA survey predict modest economic growth for 2024 and 2025. They also expect a further normalization of domestic inflation and anticipate two quarter-point cuts in the Swiss National Bank's policy rate by the end of 2024. Banks in Switzerland are expected to achieve a similar aggregate net income as seen in 2023. Decreasing income from interest operations is predicted to be offset by a higher result from the commission business and services. Between the end of January and the beginning of February 2024, 15 experienced experts from member institutions of the SBA were surveyed about their short and medium-term outlook on the economy as well as the banking industry. This analysis serves as an update to the Swiss Banking Outlook, which is part of SBA’s annual publication, the Banking-Barometer.

Modest growth

Economic growth for Switzerland is predicted to be 1.2% for the current year, which represents a slightly worse outlook compared with last year. The inflation forecast is 1.6%. Two SNB rate cuts are expected during the course of the year. The updated Swiss Banking Outlook is a little more optimistic for next year, predicting somewhat more robust economic growth and a further fall in inflation.

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Banks’ net income stable at high level

Overall expectations for Swiss banks’ income are positive. After a record year in 2023 which was driven by interest operations, the updated Swiss Banking Outlook forecasts another high figure for aggregate net income in 2024. Whereas only 13% of the experts surveyed expect an increase compared with last year, the largest share (47%) anticipate a stable trend.

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This is the March 2024 update of the Swiss Banking Outlook.

Interested in the complete analysis from September 2023?

Here you find the Swiss Banking Outlook 2023.