Swiss Banking Outlook

The SBA members’ outlook for the financial markets and banking business

In its Swiss Banking Outlook Update, the SBA outlines the expected trends in selected macroeconomic and financial market indicators and discusses topics with relevance for Swiss banking. The consensus forecasts are based on a survey of experienced financial market experts from SBA member institutions.

Swiss economy faces mixed trends

The experts surveyed anticipate moderate economic growth this year and next, along with low inflation and a slight rise in unemployment. They expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut its policy rate once more to 0.25% by mid-year. Many believe that a return to the zero-interest policy is possible. The aggregate net income of the banks in Switzerland will fall slightly year-on-year. The main reason for this is a drop in the result from interest operations, which is unlikely to be fully offset by an increase in the result from commission business and services.

Swiss Banking Outlook Update methodology

In all, 20 seasoned financial market experts from SBA member institutions responded to the written survey on the short- and medium-term outlook for the banking industry in February 2025. They include chief economists, chief investment officers and leading investment specialists.

The Swiss Banking Outlook Update includes a consensus forecast for each of the main macroeconomic and financial market indicators as well as expectations regarding opportunities and risks for the banking business in Switzerland. The experts’ opinions refer in each case to the Swiss banking industry as a whole rather than the performance of their own institution.

Interested in the complete analysis from 2024?

AUGUST 2024

Swiss Banking Outlook

Here you find the Swiss Banking Outlook from August 2024.

MARCH 2024

Swiss Banking Outlook Update

Here you find the Swiss Banking Outlook Update from March 2024.