Swiss Banking Outlook

In its Swiss Banking Outlook, the SBA outlines the expected trends in selected macroeconomic and financial market indicators and discusses topics with relevance for Swiss banking. The consensus fore­casts are based on a survey of experienced financial market experts from SBA member insti­tu­tions.

Following a sharp rise in aggregate net income in 2025, survey respondents predom­inantly expect the trend to remain positive in 2026. The main driver is, once again, commission business and services, with trading activities also forecast to grow. With margins still under pressure, expec­tations for interest operations remain cautious. Credit growth is likely to remain high, but only partially make up for the squeeze on margins. Legal certainty, political stability, a reliable regulatory framework and an efficient financial infrastructure are bolstering the Swiss banking centre. Successful deployment of artificial intelligence, along with initiatives by Parliament and the sector itself, is seen as key to future competitiveness. Moderate real economic growth is predicted for 2026 (1.0%) and 2027 (1.4%), with inflation at 0.6% this year and next. A majority of those surveyed expect monetary policy to remain expan­sionary, with interest rates staying at zero this year and in 2027; a minority believe rates will rise next year.