Swiss Banking Outlook

In its Swiss Banking Outlook Update, the SBA outlines the expected trends in selected macroeconomic and financial market indicators and discusses topics with relevance for Swiss banking. The consensus forecasts are based on a survey of experienced financial market experts from SBA member institutions.

The financial market experts surveyed at the start of July continue to expect modest growth in banks’ net income in 2025, with persistent pressure on interest margins the main factor weighing on performance. Although trading activities remain stable and commission income has slight upside potential, it remains to be seen whether this will compensate fully. Moderate real economic growth is predicted for 2025 (1.2%) and 2026 (1.4%). Inflation is reckoned to be 0.3% this year and 0.6% next. The majority of those surveyed assume that monetary policy will remain expansionary and expect the zero interest rate policy to stay in place throughout the rest of this year and 2026; meanwhile, a minority believe the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will return to negative interest rates.