Executive Summary

The consensus forecasts for 2024 are an economic growth of 1.2% and an inflation rate of 1.3%. The financial market experts anticipate an SNB policy rate of 1.0% by the end of 2024. The macroeconomic picture looks somewhat more optimistic for 2025, with the consensus forecast showing economic growth of 1.5% and inflation falling slightly to 1.1%.

Following an impressive performance in 2023, the respondents anticipate a consol­idation in net income for the banks in Switzerland this year, although their opinions differ: a third expect it to be higher, a further third expect it to be lower, and the remaining third expect it to be unchanged. The trend is likely to be driven first and foremost by the downturn in the result from interest operations. The further rate cuts that are expected will probably have a negative effect on margins as well as on income from sight deposits held with the SNB, thus reducing income from interest operations. The respondents see asset prices rising further, albeit in a more volatile market environment. They anticipate a small year-on-year increase of 5% in assets under management. They also cite Switzerland’s political stability and stable currency as essential growth drivers for cross-border wealth management in times of geopolitical uncertainty.

The survey participants see the improvement of customer experiences through digital channels as a key earnings opportunity because it will lead to higher transaction volumes. The upturn in the international economic momentum is boosting demand for banking services among export-oriented customers. Last but not least, the transition to a neutral monetary policy will also support demand for banking services. Risks to the Swiss banking sector’s income, meanwhile, are seen in particular in a continued decline in interest rates, which will squeeze margins further, as well as the increasing density and complexity of regulation, which will push costs higher. On top of this, discount banks are also seen as a certain risk factor, given that they can influence margins if they serve the same customer segments as traditional banks.