Banking Barometer 2026

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Executive Summary

Economic Developments

Switzerland is confronted with a volatile environment in terms of trade and geopolitics. A moderate growth outlook, low inflation and the persistence of zero interest rates dominate the macroeconomic picture. A key factor with regard to the Federal Council’s package of measures on banking stability is preserving the Swiss banks’ international competitiveness.

Moderate growth with increased external risks

The Swiss economy grew by 1.5% in real terms in 2025, remaining below the long-term average. The trend was mixed, with positive impetus coming from trade, financial services and the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, while other manufacturing industries experienced a downturn. The experts surveyed for the Swiss Banking Outlook forecast below-average GDP growth of 1.0% in 2026, rising to 1.4% in 2027. The war in the Middle East, higher energy prices and input costs, and exchange rate risks continue to weigh on export-oriented industries, capital spending and thus also demand for credit.

Low inflation and zero interest rates depressing interest margins

Consumer price inflation averaged 0.2% in 2025 but rose slightly at the start of 2026 as a result of higher energy prices. The SNB left its policy rate at zero; its conditional inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are both 0.5%. While higher energy prices are creating inflationary pressure in the short term, the strong Swiss franc will keep prices down from a medium-term perspective. At the same time, the interest differential relative to other countries is significant: the ECB hiked its headline rate in June 2026, while the Fed’s target range is 3.5-3.75%. This environment has both positive and negative effects for the banks. Low interest rates are good for the economy and for financing, but they depress interest margins and can be detrimental to income from domestic loan and mortgage business in particular.

Robust banking sector despite high risks to financial stability

The international financial markets have shown strength so far in spite of the increased geopolitical tensions. However, the risks to financial stability remain high. High levels of public and private debt, the growing importance of non-bank financial intermediaries and the expansion of private credit markets could amplify the effect of an abrupt tightening in financing conditions on the Swiss banking sector. That said, the sector is on a fundamentally sound footing thanks to its solid capital and liquidity buffers. Nevertheless, domestically oriented institutions’ margins remain under pressure against a backdrop of low interest rates. Mortgage debt levels are still high, and vulnerabilities persist for investment properties in particular.

Regulation: strengthening stability, avoiding locational disadvantages

The focus in Swiss regulatory policy is the Federal Council’s banking stability package, which proposes measures covering a broad spectrum of areas from capital and liquidity requirements to corporate governance and resolution. The key factor here will be formulating hard and fast rules that strike the right balance between system stability and international competitiveness. Proportionality, i.e. taking account of banks’ differing circumstances, is also vital.

Consolidated trend in Switzerland’s banks

The Swiss banks had a successful year overall in 2025. Their aggregate net income grew by 5.8% year-on-year to an all-time high of CHF 73.8 bn. Commission business and services showed a particularly strong increase. Annual profit for the sector as a whole was thus 16.3% higher at CHF 20.6 bn. Assets under management also rose to a record level.

Gains in commission business and services dominating net income

The positive trend in the Swiss banks’ aggregate net income was due in particular to the higher result from commission business and services, which indicates increased customer activity on financial markets. The other result from ordinary activities was also sharply higher. The trend in interest operations, however, was rather different: low headline interest rates caused a marked fall in interest income, but they also significantly reduced interest expense. The result from interest operations thus remained largely stable. This was especially beneficial for the big banks, which increased their share of total net income for the first time since 2020. Other categories, including the foreign and stock exchange banks, also recorded higher net income, but their share of the total fell slightly, mainly due to the big banks’ outperformance. The protracted downtrend in the big banks’ share of aggregate net income thus came to an end in 2025.

Overall, aggregate net income grew by 5.8%. Annual profit also rose strongly year-on-year in 2025, reaching CHF 20.6 bn. This was helped by a higher operating result thanks to increased net income and slightly lower operating expenses, both of which offset the sharp fall in extraordinary income compared with 2024. Extraordinary income returned to a level in line with the long-term average for the first time since the takeover of Credit Suisse, suggesting that the one-time effects of the takeover are now largely exhausted.

Market-driven rise in financial investments, mortgage loans still largest asset item

The aggregate balance sheet total of all banks in Switzerland showed a slight fall of 0.9% to CHF 3,191.3 bn in 2025. Mortgage loans remained the largest asset item, making up 39.6% of the total, and recorded a small increase as they had in the prior year. Financial investments posted the strongest growth of all asset items, especially in Switzerland. Liquid assets, meanwhile, continued the decline seen in recent years, albeit at a markedly slower rate than before, dropping 1.4%. Amounts due from customers remained largely stable, while amounts due from securities financing transactions and amounts due from banks were down. This was mainly due to a drop in amounts due from foreign banks.

Customer deposits up, amounts due to banks down

On the liabilities side, amounts due in respect of customer deposits increased slightly and thus continue to make up more than half of all liabilities. This was the result of opposing trends: sight deposits were up 14.5%, while time deposits were down 23.5%. This shift was probably caused by the SNB’s low interest rates and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop in 2025. Amounts due to banks fell by CHF 14.0 bn, mainly due to a drop in amounts due to domestic banks – in particular the big and cantonal banks. Trading portfolio liabilities posted the strongest growth, rising by CHF 11.2 bn, probably as a result of higher trading volumes and changes in the composition and valuation of trading portfolios at the big banks. Other customer deposits as well as bonds, central mortgage institution loans and cash bonds were up slightly year-on-year. This was due primarily to growth in Switzerland.

Assets under management at record level

Assets under management were up 4.8% in 2025 at a record CHF 9,729 bn. The main reason for this was the positive stock market trend, which led to a significant increase in customers’ securities holdings. Both domestic and foreign-domiciled customers saw their assets grow, with the latter enjoying the bigger increase. This underscores the Swiss banking centre’s continued appeal in cross-border wealth management, which is especially evident in times of geopolitical volatility.

Big banks depressing employment

Overall, the banks employed 92,002 full-time equivalents (FTEs) in Switzerland at the end of 2025, a decrease of 2,345 year-on-year. This was entirely attributable to the big banks, with all other categories recording an increase in headcount. The unemployment rate in the banking sector rose to 3.3%, minimally higher than the Swiss average. Despite the challenges posed by low interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, all bank categories apart from the big banks posted solid job numbers.

The SBA survey shows that the Swiss banks’ headcount reduced by 2.4% in the first half of 2026. This was mainly due to developments outside Switzerland, where headcount was down 3.7%. The fall in domestic headcount was much more moderate at 1.4%. SECO, meanwhile, reports that the financial sector unemployment rate has risen to 3.5% since the end of 2025. Expectations for the rest of the year are stable overall, with 59.4% of respondents expecting headcount to be unchanged, 33.3% higher and 7.2% lower.

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Moderate growth and stabilisation in first half of 2026

The economic trend remained moderately positive in the first half of 2026, but the Swiss Banking Outlook predicts significantly below-average GDP growth for the year as a whole. Inflation was still low, and the SNB left its policy rate at 0%. The Swiss banks’ aggregate balance sheet total grew by 3.4% to CHF 3,412.6 bn. This growth was driven in particular by financial investments, amounts due from banks and amounts due from securities financing transactions, while the other asset items were largely stable. Amounts due from banks posted an especially sharp increase, making up for their decline in 2025. Assets under management also reached a new high, breaking through the CHF 10,000 bn barrier for the first time at CHF 10,119.5 bn. This was due first and foremost to the 4.7% rise in securities holdings. Fiduciary liabilities also recorded strong growth of 7.1%. Amounts due to customers excluding sight deposits, meanwhile, were lower, which was solely due to the trend among foreign-domiciled customers.

The editorial deadline for the Banking Barometer 2026 was 13 August 2026.